The House and Senate reconvened this week after the much-anticipated Republican red wave failed to materialize. As of today, the Senate will remain in Democratic control, with not one incumbent senator losing and Democrats picking up the Republican held Pennsylvania seat that John Fetterman won. Democrats could expand their majority to 51 if they prevail in the December 6th Georgia runoff election between Democratic incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock and embattled Republican candidate Herschel Walker which current polls show as very tight. In the House, last night, Republicans reached the 218 seat threshold needed to take control of the chamber. Seven House races remain uncalled: one in Alaska, one in Colorado and five in California. Democrats lead in four of them. If current numbers hold, Republicans seem likely to have the narrowest of majorities with 221 seats, giving them a paltry three seat advantage allowing House Democrats to continue to play a leading role in supporting President Joe Biden’s agenda, with strong leverage over a scant Republican majority, and a likely weak Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-California), should he be able to secure 218 votes in January.
As House and Senate Leadership elections play out, yesterday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) beat back a challenge from Senator Rick Scott (R-Florida) 37-10-1. Senate Democrats are expected to hold their leadership elections the week of December 5th. House Republicans voted for Kevin McCarthy as their leader on Tuesday as he tries to become the next speaker of the House. McCarthy won the leadership vote over fellow Republican Arizona Representative Andy Biggs by a 188-31 margin. Under the current scenario, McCarthy would only be able to afford to lose three Republican votes in the new Congress to secure a majority and become speaker, presuming Democrats remain united in opposition. That would mean McCarthy could only lose one out of every 10 members who cast a ballot for Biggs, which is almost zero margin for error. If McCarthy is not able to do that, it would be the second time in less than a decade his bid for House speaker came up short. In October 2015, McCarthy dropped out of the race to replace Speaker John Boehner when it became clear that he didn’t have the votes to win.
This morning, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California), the first woman to hold the speakership, and who has led the House Democrats for two decades announced she will not pursue the role of minority leader when the new Congress convenes in January. Her remarks set off a rapid and long-anticipated shift in the top ranks of Democratic leadership, now dominated by a trio of octogenarians, toward a younger group that has been waiting in the wings. Shortly after Speaker Pelosi concluded her remarks, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Maryland) said in a letter to his colleagues that he, too would refrain from seeking a leadership position in the next Congress. He endorsed Representative Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) to be the next Democratic leader, throwing his support to a lawmaker who is widely regarded as Speaker Pelosi’s likeliest successor.
As much of what is written above seems hard to believe based on how most people thought the midterm elections would turn out, the new Congress doesn’t begin until January 3rd, and much legislative work still must be completed in the lame duck session that began this week and is expected to last into mid-December. Breaking down legislative items into three buckets here is current list under consideration for the lame duck:
Must Do Items:
- FY ‘23 Appropriations or CR
- National Defense Authorization Act (including Intelligence, Coast Guard & WRDA reauthorizations)
- Health care (including extenders; mitigating cuts; telehealth)
- Judges & Nominations
Under Consideration:
- Spending riders including additional Ukraine money; pandemic funding; disaster funding; flood insurance; and FDA user fee)
- Respect for Marriage act (already in process)
- Electoral Count Reform
- Secure 2.0 pensions legislation
- EQUAL Act (cocaine/crack sentencing)
- SAFE banking (cannabis)
- Tax expansion (R&D; CTC; EBITA)
Probably Not, But Under Discussion:
- Antitrust reform
- Privacy regulation (ADPPA)
- Cryptocurrency reform (FTX implosion has added urgency)
- Debt ceiling extension
- Member stock trading ban
- CFIUS
- Energy permitting reform
- Kids’ privacy (KOSA; COPPA 2.0)
For today, the Senate convened at 10:00 A.M. and resumed consideration of the motion to proceed to H.R.8404, Respect for Marriage Act, post-cloture, with a vote on the motion to proceed expected. On Wednesday, Senators voted 62-37 to advance the bill including every Democrat and 12 Republicans. On Friday, the Senate may hold its final vote to pass the bill before adjourning for the Thanksgiving recess and reconvening on Monday, November 28th.
The House convened at 12:00 P.M. and is considering the House Amendment to S. 3092 – FIRE Act as well as H.R. 8416 – Disaster Survivors Fairness Act of 2022. The House is also expected to take up eleven bills under suspension of the Rules before adjourning for the week. When the house adjourns today, it will reconvene on Tuesday, November 29th, after the Thanksgiving recess next week.
Washington, D.C. Daily Update will resume publication on Tuesday, November 29th.
