The Senate is on track for a potential weekend vote on the Inflation Reduction Act (H.R. 5376), the massive tax, health care, and climate bill, according to Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York), but forces beyond his control could alter that timeline. The bill’s biggest roadblock comes from within the Democratic Caucus, with Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-Arizona) yet to say how she would vote. Democrats need all 50 of their senators on board and the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris to secure passage. Sinema’s office has continued to say that the senator would address the bill once the Senate parliamentarian has completed a review of the bill, to ensure its provisions comply with congressional rules for budget reconciliation measures. Sinema reportedly has concerns with the structure of the 15% corporate minimum “book tax” and whether the burden could get passed down to employees. Further, Sinema supports cracking down on tax avoidance, but has long voiced her opposition to closing the carried interest loophole saying that the provision, which would contribute $14 billion toward paying down the bill’s $740 billion total, could undermine economic competitiveness.
The Inflation Reduction Act would reduce federal budget deficits by $102 billion over 10 years, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday, in addition, the CBO calculated that increasing the Internal Revenue Service budget would generate $204 billion in new revenue from cracking down on tax avoidance, something that wasn’t included in the official deficit score. When that is factored in, the CBO analysis is in line with the $300 billion in deficit reduction claim initially made for the bill by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin (D).
For today, the Senate convened at 12:00 P.M. and is expected to consider S.J.Res.55, congressional disapproval of National Environmental Policy Act Implementing Regulations Revisions and to reinstate Trump administration reforms to the federal permit process under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). The vote has serious implications for future energy, mining, and infrastructure projects. It will also be an indication whether there really is bipartisan support for the substantive permitting reforms that are part of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.
The Senate is also expected to consider the nomination of Roopali H. Desai to be United States Circuit Judge for the Ninth Circuit.
Adam S. Olsen, Washington, D.C.
